tv Fast Money CNBC September 27, 2013 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT
expecting this announcement next week. perhaps then we can start looking for clarity on some of the other important issues looming, like the debt ceiling the debt limit, tax policy and regulatory frameworks, it just seems to me the janet yellin announcement is the low hanging fruit. mr. president, it's time to pick it. that will do it for us tonight on closing bell thanks for joining me see you this weekend on the money sunday join us for a special program. stay with cnbc, fast money begins right now. ♪ >> live from the nasdaq markets in times square i'm melissa lee here is tonight's line up facebook yahoo hitting new highs, ibm and cisco drag down the lows. fourth quarter spirits, fractured fed and upcoming job support got you down? your best fourth quarter mix of sing lg malts sure to lift your
spirits. and total request friday in the mood for a little zep. no near to fear fast money total request friday is here. our traders tonight are tim seymour, brian kelly. and guy adami. the sixth day of the past seven with declines in the dow and with the fourth quarter kicking off monday how are you trading the d.c. gridlock fed uncertainty and earnings season? guy? >> hi. before we start, that is a righteous -- i mean oh that hair cut looks strong. great. brufl. right? >> anyway -- >> we've been saying we said the s & p was going to 17.25. i'm holding to it. the trade into that was to get short caterpillar somewhere between 88 and 90. that's played out. i think the market will test. it needs to hold i think if we close below 1670 we are in a whole different trading range, that could take us down to test a june low. be careful.
trade the ranges. >> how do you interpret the markets move here? there is not a clear reach for safety. >> there is not. i think there is better opportunities than actually being in the market. guy mentioned 1670. i think that's probably a place, where you want to start looking to getting back in. the reason i say that i think you're going to have continued quantitative easing you saw it happen in the gold market. the rhetoric is shifting here from the fed to reserve. they are starting to focus more on inflation. we saw the pce this morning came in well below their expectations, charles evans spoke this morning, early this morning about 7:30 talked about the dual mandate, talked about inflation targeting. you saw gold spike. i think going into the fourth quarter, the best play here is gold. >> there is no inflation. >> exactly. >> and i agree with you, brian. all week the fed was very dovish. four week job list. the labor market doesn't look awful. the data that comes out i think looks decent. the trade for me is you stay in the reacceleration of some type of an industrial move. so guy was talking about
caterpillar, if you look at a lot of materials names if you look at miners we had a pmi flash china pmi, which basically is a read what we'll get end of the month. these numbers are as good as china has given in months. look at the reacceleration in urm, they are not give anything more stimulus they actually see strength. this is a sign to me, that real names that have real growth are places you can stay in. the internet stocks the chinese internet names are booming. and these are places you have to take profits. because these are names if you don't take the profits, you have nothing left with big gains. >> we mentioned today's total request friday. what do we mean? it means we've taken your tweets, we'll incorporate them throughout the show. i want to tee this up for you. tim had mentioned some of these -- the tried and true growth names that will do well. bullet proof stocks. there's a question from cook davis, consensus seems there will be window dressing until year's end. what happens after? especially high flying names like tesla, linked in and
amazon. >> all those names will be tested. they all can feel toppy. but every sale you made in those names has been a bad sell. every time -- i've been in and out of tesla five times. and i'm back in the name right now. and every time i've sold it i feel like i sold it too soon. amazon, you could have said it was overvalued as 190 bucks. and way before that. i think that you have to be along this market. >> guy, what is your take on these? i want to use that that would imply there is nothing to back up the run. but they are monster runs. >> linked in i still like it. we talked about on wednesday, when it was showing weakness the stock has since come back. i think price line i think the reason people get nutty about priceline, it's a thousand dollar stock. if it was $100 stock, people look at it much differently. it's not about the price, it's about the valuation. and at 23 times earnings wherever they are trading on a forward multiple priceline still makes sense here. i mean they have the growth to back that up.
regardless of what you think about the economy. it's not unlike the play we talked about mastercard and visa for years. >> it's a momentum driven market. if the market does well, continues to climb, you'll see momentum stocks increase in value, because everyone is trying to make up for performance. you won't make up for performance by buying a flat line. >> if the market goes higher. if the overall market goes higher -- >> the market was a little weak today. what was up on my screen? it was micron tesla was on my screen. you had pot ash up on my screen. a lot of names. and pot ash, not a momentum play. but a recovering play. >> talking about a pullback here's a tweet from alex, what are the odds of a correction more than 5% in the markets in 2013? and i know tim, you're ready to answer this one. >> well, i'm ready to answer this one. because if i was guy adami i would bring graphics. and i brought a chart tonight. >> oh! >> what i want to ask is take a gander at where we had pullbacks in the last year and a half it's been notable in a lack of volatility. so if you look at a chart of the
s & p over the last year if you look back since september 2011 you can see we've had essentially decelerating volatility. we had 10% pullback. another 10% pullback end of 2012. as you got into 2013 the best we've been able to do is 5% pullback that came after the bernanke comments in june. another slight pullback here each pullback slightly less. the risk of a 5% correction comes from policy error or policy failure. i don't see it unless we have something this weekend. but the fed to me we've got every reason to believe that janet yellin will be head of the fed. continuity is the name of the game there. i don't think you're going to get the kind of things people expect. china people are calling it a house of cards in the middle part of the year. i don't think that is true. china is reaccelerating. >> i think you're going to get a little pullback maybe the number he was looking for, 1670 just to get people uneasy and then you'll see a quick whiplash. so agreed. but everyone is going to have a head fake, when we're coming out of d.c. everybody will think oh, my god,
chicken little the sky is falling. >> okay. and a lot of technicians say that as well. >> and that's the level you have to look at again, it's very hard to get extremely bearish on this market as long as you have all of the liquidity from the federal reserve. i mean i know it's beating the drum we've beaten three or four years. but if they're going to continue to buy it you can't fight them. >> let's talk about the commodities trade a little bit going into this shutdown. i wonder if you think that gold is going fob a clear play. or what the trade is on oil going into the shutdown. >> there is nothing clear about the commodities play. >> that's exactly right. i don't think gold has ever been a commodity play. i don't think it is a commodity in that sense of the word. i don't think there has been anything easy about the gold trade. what i will say is i do think gold, if what i think is happening in the world happens, and i think gold is where you want to be. it's not that the sun will explode. it's just this continuing central bank easing. i think at a certain point it catches up to gold.
it's a play against currencies it's been a painful trade. i get it. i still think you want to have something in the gold market. >> here's an interesting tweet when it comes to commodities, but also overlay the fact we're going into winter. this is from fay, want to know what the panel thinks of ung long term. >> i like it. you actually saw today, the u.s. has exported the most natural gas that has ever in its history. it is a long way away before we become a massive export hub. but natural gas in the short term had very bearish news this week. shrugged it off. expectations for the next storage numbers are bearish. natural gas is ignoring it. for me i love natural gas. you can also play glng looks fantastic. >> lng, what an incredible run this has had. every time you bet against this it runs up again. exactly. those are great spots to be as you said. >> those are momentum names like we're talking about before that still i think have more momentum
left in them. >> the biggest movers of the week. drop for pandora down 5% this week. >> last week i was telling you it was 52 week highs. it's lost a lot of momentum. last week the news they are winning lawsuits basically all of the content providers have to give their catalogs over to pandora. this is the way. they're not the only guys in the game. but i think you can wait for a pullback, it's a name you want to own. >> jc pen each crushed this week down 30%. >> you know earlier this week i referenced rain man, when i came to this thing. i say jcpenney stinks. >> excuse your language. >> it's a family show. jcpenney stinks. stay away from this name. much better stocks to trade. >> tesla. up 4%. >> we're talking about this every night. the most recent price target race was deutsch bank. it seems like this stock, it gets to the price target. it's a hot car, stay in the name. >> drop for blackberry down 8%
this week. >> early in the week they got a deal of nine bucks, closes at eight bucks, all you need to know about blackberry. i mean maybe history has shown in this stock and i've been wrong countless times, every bounce is an opportunity to sell it. >> from patriotic tweets to record breaking here is the fast money week in review. >> if bk loved america, what stock would you buy now? >> you know first of all, i love kind of the third person in there. bk does love america. i was born on flag day. almost the same day. >> the roof top racers. >> horses are the dumbest animals on the planet. no, i'm not talking myself out of anything. >> i guess the horse gets the last laugh. >> oh! >> round two of the street fight. >> there you go.
>> and a pop for 200 dancers gathered in manhattan for what promoters called a record breaking booty shake. >> what are these people? if you twirk, you don't work. >> words to live by. i mean honestly. >> you should run for mayor in new york city one day. >> coming up next on fast out with the old in with the new, high flying internet names climbing to fresh highs, old tech continues to drag. what's the trade on tech's mixed bag? we'll lay it out next. gold clinging to gains for the week. should you be placing bets on the miners and not the metals? right after this. ♪ by clinging to the past. and with that: you're history.
lynrd skynrd. >> you guys have to stop. >> anyway anyway it's total request friday. we've been playing your requests throughout the show. we hope you enjoy that. let's get to the tech trade. yahoo trades rallied. call it the ali baba effect. the story in san jose josh. >> melissa, yahoo now up 8% in just the past five days. one possible reason excitement over that potential ali baba ipo. the company wants to have 28 partners nominate a majority of the board. hong kong regulators, though they object to that kind of corporate governance structure. ali baba shareholders now coming to the defense of the company, saying yahoo does back ali baba partnership structure. why is this a big deal for
yahoo? remember yahoo has a 24% stake in ali baba analysts value ali baba at $95 billion. that could be worth, they say, $15 per share for yahoo shareholders or as much as 22 billion, if ali baba does go public. melissa, back to you. >> josh lipton, thanks. we did get a tweet about yahoo from dan, who asks what about crowded longs like facebook and amazon. specifically with yahoo, tim, i wonder, josh mentioned soft bank being a stake holder what's a better -- if you were so inclined, is yahoo not the way to go? maybe soft bank? >> what's surprising to me it took people this long. we talked about the ali baba effect and yahoo. and the only reason to own yahoo was for this. i think the halo effects around the entire chinese internet space is something you have to be careful of. i look at getting near 10 a lot of momentum started before the ipo chatter, because earnings were very good. they are monetizing.
but at some point you run into technical resistance, 160 this stock can't get through. be careful. this is a stock with a major run. and we talked about -- all of the other names, anything that has exposure to china twitter, china you tube these are places people want to play the same place. i am taking profits here. >> new tech did well today. but the buzz kill today was old technology. you take a look at intel, ibm, cisco, all weighing heavily on the dow. the story with ibm is the soft guidance that accenture gave. >> last quarter it was a little better. not great by ibm standards. and although the stock bounced to 192, it traded lousy ever since that report two quarters ago. i think yeah it is. i'm not sure when ibm reports, but i'm not expecting anything out of the stock. i think the stock was trading 183, 184 at the time. i think this stock could trade
down in the 170s, yeah. i think it's a concern. >> the real problem is that accenture talked about volatility. that echoed what john chambers said with maria the other day. there is concern overall in this space, not just when it comes to services and hardware but when it -- >> i thought those chambers' comments were interesting. i'm surprised it didn't have more of an effect on that day. in general, you're looking at slowing revenue streams, then the problem with ibm, they are using almost 100% of free cash flow to buy back stock, not manipulate the earnings but the more stock you buy back the better your earnings on lower revenues. i would be very careful with ibm over the next quarter. >> we had price targets taken down on qualcomm today. do you think that's still the place? >> i'm snil it personally. i do think they are doing their own thing. they are everywhere you want to be in the smart phone, the tablets, and the ipads, every
place you want to be, every place you see as growth, qualcomm still has a footprint. >> let's go back because old tech versus new tech new tech facebook. facebook is hot. we got a lot of tweets on facebook. we want to get to this. this is from tan. with huge rise in facebook third quarter earnings expectations will be high. what do you say. >> you want to buy this one into earnings, but don't want to hold it too long. keep riding it. it's way late a lot of these increases that we're seeing from the sell side. i would be a seller into earnings versus staying long. >> i agree with that. after the last earnings, the bar was relatively low for these guys. they have decent comps on a year over year basis. on a sequential basis, quarterly, people expect big things, they had a huge turn around in mobile monetization. i don't know how you could be long into numbers. >> what's trending today on the twitter machine. stocks generating the most chatter. the sneaker trade. off and running. nike trading at all time highs,
foot locker sprinting higher as well. >> a nice hairdo and some puns on the desk. this could be a name we were talking about yesterday, nike with numbers out, margin growth is happening. it's a product line it's product innovation top line. the margin growth 15% as good as you've seen from these guys in a long time. this is a name you buy. you buy on weakness. in addition to those numbers that are putting a lots of institutional bid to the stock, that won't go away in the next couple days. ultimately, i think you have to be careful of the risks in the emerging markets any time you hear slowdown in china these guys fell. >> next up lumber liquidators falling today after federal agents searched the headquarters of the retailer. the company saying it's cooperating with authorities on the probe of wood imports. >> listen we were on this one for a long time. it was a monster, traded up to 115. down 5% today. still above 100. it's very hard to stay long when you start having fed in the
probes go. that's not a recipe to stay long with stock. so if you've been in this if you didn't get out today, i'm not sure what you're waiting for. not to say the story might not wind up being false. you get out and wait for the dust to settle. >> bring in the lumber. >> bring in the lumber. >> i went on their web site to look at the company. 1-800-hardwood. >> what does that mean? >> they sell hardwood. >> why do you bring that up? >> i thought it was clever. >> okay. >> finally gold on twitter today. we talked about gold before. gold versus miners what's the trade? >> i personally like gold. here's the reason i'd rather buy gold versus miners the input costs. if you see oil going higher than the gold miners have a little bit more tougher time their margins will yet squeezed. if you're playing gold as the anti-currency, as the qe trade, stick with gld. >> still ahead -- why are you laughing? >> what did you say that number was? >> 1-800-hardwood. it's the number on the web site
anyway, still ahead, with the countdown to the government shutdown may be the perfect time to get acquainted with brandies. our expert brandy is here. back in two. >> fast money means trading, everybody has to bring their best information each night. the entire trading day is the preparation for the show that night. >> it's idea generation, it's all about giving you a framework for how to look at the market. as the world has changed, our show has evolved. i am guy adami, i am fast money. >> i am pete i am fast money. >> are you fast money? go to the universal store and order your fast money tee. run with the big dogs. >> i just want to make you money. >> eight years, thousands of miles traveled, hundreds of ceos. thousands of callers, millions
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here's our executive edge. ♪ >>. i think there will be a shutdown, although probably a short one. i think the real threat, the real problem is the debt limit. >> jcpenney just announcing, that that public offering is going to be 84 million shares of the common stock. it's going to be priced at $9.65. what the republicans are saying by quote, delaying the individual mandate for a year is it means you're basically cutting the legs out from under the affordable care act's ability to make sure that insurance companies can't drop people or deny them coverage for a preexisting condition. >> moments away from incoming spending for august. up four-tenths on income up three-tenths on spend being. pretty much in line with expectations, not bad numbers. >> the world's biggest maker of sporting goods made its earnings debut as a member of the dow. it knocked it out of the park. let's kick it off with a look at
the headline numbers. earnings coming in at 86 cents per share, eight cents better than average wall street estimates. >> the house passed a bill defunding obama care. right now the votes are piling up to end debate on a senate bill that would extend government funding but strip that provision. the last count i heard from our colleagues was 50 to 13. >> just now, i spoke on the phone with president rouhani of the islamic republic of iran. the two of us discussed our ongoing efforts to reach an agreement over iran's nuclear program. >> let's get straight to the brandy. the brandy library. >> it's fall. we want to do nice warm drinks brandy is the obvious choice. what's the first thing you brought. >> well, brandy can come from california. apple brandy. why not? >> why not? >> it's great. >> all american. >> makes it very well. so i would start with that.
it's apple picking season you don't have to go apple picking, just sit back and relax by the fireplace. >> you have a fall outfit by the way. >> city island? >> oh man. all right. i would rather just drink brandy. let's go. >> i agree. >> next one. >> the next brandy big bold flavors. if you want lengths, if you want complexity, if you want something rich to fight the chills of the fall this is it. i think it's automatic. >> we're out of time. >> no way. >> we are. we will continue during the break. >> he's the man. brandy library.
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